India joins hands with Taliban: The beginning of a new geopolitics

There are signs of a major change in the diplomatic map of South Asia. Delhi is now on the path of strengthening diplomatic relations with the Afghan Taliban government, which India once considered the biggest security threat. This unprecedented event is not only a new chapter in Afghanistan-India relations, but is also being seen as a major diplomatic setback for Pakistan.

The Taliban's seizure of power after the fall of the Western-backed Ashraf Ghani government in 2021 was an uncomfortable reality for India. But just four years later, the visit of Amir Khan Muttaqiq, the Foreign Minister of that Taliban government, to New Delhi has ushered in a new balance in South Asian politics.

During Muttaqiq's eight-day visit to India, he held bilateral meetings with the country's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The discussions raised various aspects of strengthening diplomatic, commercial and economic cooperation. After the meeting, New Delhi announced that it would reopen its embassy in Kabul — which was closed after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Jaishankar said, “Close cooperation between India and Afghanistan will not only contribute to regional stability but will also play a major role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.” He reiterated India’s commitment to Afghanistan’s sovereignty and independence.

Meanwhile, Amir Khan Muttaki called India a “close friend” and said, “This visit will open a new chapter in the relations between the two countries.” The visiting Afghan delegation is also holding meetings with the Indian business community, which is expected to strengthen the foundation of the two countries’ future trade partnership.

Pakistan has been presenting itself as their “close ally” since the establishment of the Taliban government. But the deterioration of that relationship has been evident in recent times. Tensions between Kabul and Islamabad have increased due to border clashes, security issues and tensions over the TTP. The India-Taliban rapprochement is therefore seen as a major blow to Pakistan's diplomatic interests. Harsh V Pant and Shivam Shekhawat of the Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation told NDTV, "With relations with Pakistan deteriorating, the Taliban now want to show the world that they are not dependent on Islamabad. They want to send that message by increasing their ties with India."

India has not yet officially recognized the Taliban government, but is pursuing a "realist diplomacy." Currently, a small Indian diplomatic team is based in Kabul and India regularly sends humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. According to analysts, there are three main objectives behind India's diplomatic strategy—(1) reducing Pakistan's regional influence, (2) creating land connectivity with Central Asia, and (3) balancing the growing influence of China and Russia.

The Taliban leadership is also now realizing that it is difficult to gain international recognition by relying solely on Pakistan. Therefore, they are focusing on strengthening relations with China, Russia, Iran and India. Closeness with a regional power like India is becoming a kind of ‘symbol of legitimacy’ for them. Strategic analyst Brahma Chelani wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “This visit is a major diplomatic blow for Pakistan and an important step towards international recognition of the Taliban government.”

The visit is taking place at a time when India-Pakistan relations are undergoing severe tensions after the attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. At the same time, the Taliban-India closeness is further weakening Islamabad’s diplomatic position. In the past, India was a close ally of the anti-Taliban government of Ashraf Ghani. It was that government that was ousted by the Taliban. Yet today, it is the same Taliban that is engaging in diplomatic talks with India—a clear reflection of the pragmatic and far-sighted diplomacy of both sides.

According to analysts, a new reality is emerging in the geopolitics of South Asia—where India is strengthening its strategic position by strengthening its ties with the Taliban, while Pakistan is gradually losing its old influence and trust.

This sudden warming of Afghanistan-India relations has undoubtedly opened a new chapter in regional politics. On the one hand, the Taliban is seeking to increase its international acceptance, on the other hand, India is trying to rebalance the diplomatic balance in South Asia. Finally, perhaps the most worried is Pakistan—which sees that Afghanistan, through which it once exerted strategic influence, is now joining hands with its rival India.