India-Pakistan Missile Race: Whose Target Is China or Pakistan?

The missile race has once again reignited tensions in the skies of South Asia. On August 20, India announced that it had successfully test-fired a medium-to-long-range ballistic missile called Agni-5. The missile, launched from the Bay of Bengal coast in the state of Odisha, has added a new dimension to India's strategic military power.

Agni-5: A showcase of India's power

The Sanskrit word Agni means 'fire'. True to its name, Agni-5 is a symbol of firepower.

Length: 17.5 meters

Weight: 50,000 kg

Carrying capacity: More than 1,000 kg of nuclear or conventional warheads

Range: More than 5,000 kilometers

Speed: About 30,000 kilometers per hour

Such a capability has made India's missile arsenal one of the fastest ballistic missiles in the world. This range includes not only Pakistan, but also northern China and parts of Europe.

Pakistan's counter-preparations

A week before India's test, Pakistan announced that it was going to form a new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC). According to analysts, Islamabad took this initiative after realizing its defense deficiencies during a four-day border conflict in May.

Their arsenal already includes—

Shaheen-3: Range 2,750 km

Ababil: South Asia's first ballistic missile with MIRV technology (range 2,200 km)

Fatah-4: Range 750 km, capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads

However, Pakistan does not yet have any nuclear submarines or missiles with a range of more than 5,000 km.

Who is India's real target?

Experts say that the main purpose of Agni-5 is not Pakistan, but China.

Pakistan is already within reach of supersonic cruise missiles like Brahmos for India.

China's eastern coastal economic cities are a challenge for India. Long-range missiles are essential to hit them.

Since the 2020 Ladakh conflict and border tensions, New Delhi has increasingly seen China as a major threat.

Agni to Agni-6: India's next step

After Agni-5, India is now working on Agni-6, which will have a range of over 10,000 km. It will have MIRV technology to hit multiple targets simultaneously.

India currently has:

Two nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs), two more under construction

Brahma supersonic cruise missiles (range 500 km)

Agni series missiles (range 700 km to 5,000 km+)

Pakistan's defense vs. India's ambitions

Pakistan's program is primarily India-centric and defensive.

India's goal is to become a global power across the border.

Pakistan is trying to bring Israel and the United States into line with India.

On the other hand, India is developing long-range missiles, considering China as a strategic rival.

International reaction: India and Pakistan with different eyes

The United States and Western countries have expressed concern about Pakistan's missile program. Because it has a history of anti-Western sentiment.

On the other hand, India's long-range missile development does not seem unstable to the West. Rather, they want to see India as a balancing power in Asian security.

In 2008, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) made concessions for India. As a result, India is able to participate in the global nuclear trade without signing the NPT.

The future of competition in South Asia

The India-Pakistan missile competition is affecting not only regional security but also global diplomacy.

India wants to reach China's level and establish itself as a global power.

Pakistan wants to deter India and at the same time threaten other countries.

The missile race between the two arch-rivals in South Asia is no longer limited to themselves. India's goal is to expand its influence far and wide, globally. And Pakistan is becoming increasingly aggressive in the name of defense. As a result, future security risks in the skies of South Asia are becoming more concentrated.