Al Jazeera sees potential for Jamaat to come to power

A new reality has emerged in Bangladesh's political arena surrounding the general elections to be held on February 12. An analysis by the international media outlet Al Jazeera says that Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami is now facing the biggest political opportunity in its history. This is the country's first national election since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in a student-public uprising in August 2024, which has become very important in determining the course of politics.

This year's election has effectively become a two-way competition as the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus banned the Awami League. Al Jazeera's report says that a new alliance consisting of Jamaat, the National Citizens Party (NCP) and several Islamic parties has emerged as the main rival of the frontrunner BNP. This alliance has made the electoral equation more complex and competitive.

Recent opinion polls have significantly increased Jamaat's confidence. In December, a survey by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that the BNP had 33 percent public support, while Jamaat had 29 percent. The latest joint survey by several domestic organizations published last week narrowed the gap further—the BNP had 34.7 percent and Jamaat had 33.6 percent.

According to analysts, if Jamaat could win this election, it would be an extremely dramatic comeback for the party. The party has faced severe repression in the past decade and a half, and many of its top leaders have been hanged or served long prison sentences for crimes against humanity. Founded in 1941 by Syed Abul Ala Maududi, Jamaat is still controversial among a large section of the country's people for opposing the 1971 liberation war. However, the party's current leadership says that long-term oppression has created sympathy for them among the people.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Jamaat Naib-e-Ameer Dr. Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher said that for the past 55 years, people have seen the rule of Awami League and BNP and now they want to see a new political force in power. He said that Jamaat is presenting itself as a “moderate Islamic force”. As part of this strategy, the party has nominated a Hindu candidate named Krishna Nandi in Khulna, which is being seen as an important message to win the trust of minority voters.

However, there are concerns at home and abroad about Jamaat’s potential rise to power. Critics fear that if the Islamic party comes to power, Sharia law, women’s rights and the freedom of minorities may come into question. However, Jamaat leaders have made it clear that they want to implement reform programs within the framework of the existing secular constitution.

Thomas Keen, a senior consultant at the International Crisis Group, believes that if Jamaat comes to power, its relations with India could face new challenges, especially due to ideological differences with the BJP government. However, the signs of rebuilding Bangladesh's relations with Pakistan after the political change in August could be a positive aspect for Jamaat.

Meanwhile, Jamaat is contesting 179 seats and NCP 30 seats in the 11-party electoral seat agreement. Jamaat is currently in a very strong position from an organizational point of view. Its student organization Islami Chhatra Shibir has recently achieved significant success in the student parliament elections on various campuses across the country.

According to party leaders, Jamaat has about 20 million supporters and about 250,000 registered 'rukans' or members. According to analysts, this election is not just a voter war - it is also a tough test for Jamaat to gain national acceptance. The February 12 verdict will determine whether this party, which has long been at the center of controversy, will be able to transform its organizational power into state legitimacy.