Three reasons why Iran will not develop nuclear weapons

Iran's nuclear program has long been a controversial and hotly debated issue in world politics. Western powers, including the United States and Israel, have long alleged that Iran secretly wants to build nuclear weapons. But the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or US intelligence agencies have not yet been able to provide any credible evidence to support this claim.

Iran has always claimed that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and for civilian purposes. The question is, if Iran wants to, why hasn't it made a bomb for so many years? And even if it doesn't, why is it enriching uranium to such a high level?

To find the answers to these questions, Iran's religious values, strategic intelligence, political reality, and international perspective must be analyzed together.

1. Religious prohibitions and moral stance

In 2003, Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a fatwa, which clearly states that the creation, stockpiling, or use of nuclear weapons is completely 'haram' in the eyes of Islam. This is not just a religious fatwa, but a moral declaration, which states that nuclear weapons commit genocide against innocent people, which Islam strictly prohibits.

From Iran's perspective, the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is a real example of this prohibition. They believe that nuclear weapons are a grave crime against humanity, the environment, and future generations. The killing of civilians is prohibited in Islamic war policy, and Iran strictly follows that policy.

2. Strategic reality: deterrence, not nuclear power, is important

Many believe that a country is secure if it has nuclear weapons. But history says otherwise. For example:

Pakistan, despite having nuclear weapons, was forced to support the US in its 2001 Afghanistan campaign.

North Korea, despite having nuclear weapons, is isolated on the world stage.

Russia, the world's most nuclear-armed country, is under pressure from NATO in the Ukraine war.

Israel, despite being an undeclared nuclear power, has suffered major military losses in Iran's recent attacks.

This reality has made Iran understand that not only nuclear weapons, but also effective deterrence and technological progress are the keys to security. Therefore, Iran has chosen the policy of moving towards advanced ballistic missiles, drones and modern defensive technologies.

3. Political risks and international pressure

Even if Iran has enough uranium to make nuclear weapons, why doesn't it go that way? Because if they go this way, they face three major political disasters:

‌A. People's suffering due to new sanctions and economic pressure

Iran has been under US sanctions since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. More than 1,500 sanctions have been imposed on the country since 2005. If it makes a new nuclear bomb, these sanctions will be even stricter and will have a profound impact on public life.

B. Loss of support from allies

Powerful allies such as China and Russia are members of the NPT. They do not want Iran to become a new nuclear power. As a result, such a move would cause Iran to lose international support.

C. Risk of direct attack

Israel and the United States have already attacked Iran's nuclear facilities (June 13 and 22). If Iran really announces the construction of nuclear weapons in the future, the two countries could go on a large-scale military operation together.

High-level uranium enrichment: a strategic card

Iran is enriching uranium to 60 percent, although 90 percent is required for weapons-grade uranium. According to analysts, this is a strategic pressure tactic. Through this, they want to:

Increase their influence in negotiations, especially in the revival of the JCPOA agreement.

Bring a balance to regional rivalries, such as against Israel's arsenal and Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions.

Demonstrate nuclear capabilities, but it is not a weapon, but a symbol of deterrence.

Violation of international agreements and duplicity

Iran was a member of the 1968 NPT and limited its programs under the JCPOA agreement signed in 2015. But in 2018, US President Trump unilaterally terminated the agreement. Since then, Iran has been forced to change its position.

Recently, after the IAEA raised allegations against Iran, Israel and the US launched joint attacks. In response, Iran questioned the neutrality of the IAEA and rejected the visit of the agency's head, Rafael Grossi.

US-Israeli duplicity: 'One's weapons are security, the other's threats'

Analyst Noam Chomsky rightly said - "The weapons that are security in the hands of Israel are threats in the hands of Iran - this is the hypocrisy of world politics."

The US provided nuclear technology to Iran before the 1979 revolution. Today, it is presenting that Iran as a threat. On the other hand, Israel has never signed the NPT and is internationally accountable for its potential nuclear arsenal of 80–400 bombs.

Policy, not force, will determine the future

Iran knows that nuclear weapons are strategically suicidal and morally unacceptable. That is why it has chosen a policy-based diplomatic path. It has the right to peaceful nuclear technology, and the international community should respect that.

Dialogue, not pressure, can defuse tensions. If international politics is fair and participatory, then a secure and balanced future is possible, not only for Iran but for the entire world.